Why Is Deer Hunting in the Northwoods Declining? Will It Rebound?

Stu Osthoff of Ely, Minnesota, first hunted the state’s Arrowhead region in 1978 at age 22. He was impressed by the abundance of big antlers nailed to barns and garages. He settled down locally, got married, and raised a family.

Starting in the late 1990s, Osthoff regularly wrote articles for hunting publications and his family’s Boundary Waters Journal magazine, boasting about the region’s top-ranking public-land whitetails. He even decorated his home with mounted whitetails. But since 2012, Osthoff has only added one more buck to his collection, and he no longer finds enough whitetails to praise the hunting grounds.

“It really declined the past 10 years,” Osthoff says. “They get run down during the rut, and then they’re vulnerable to deep snow and wolf predation. We still see a couple of big bucks on our land, but they really declined up in the Boundary Waters. Those tough winters—especially in 2013-14—took a heavy toll on bucks 4½ and older.

Osthoff attributes the decline to severe winters, with conditions worsening eastward toward Lake Superior. The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources tracks snow depths and air temperatures from Nov. 1 through May 31, rating the past 10 winters as “severe.” Northeastern Minnesota’s buck kill has plunged 57 percent over the past decade.

Declining Whitetail Numbers in the North Country

Similar declines have been observed in the boreal forests of neighboring Wisconsin and Michigan. In northern Wisconsin, the deer harvest dropped 46 percent after consecutive winters. Michigan’s Upper Peninsula also saw a declining buck kill over the past 35 years.

Wolves and Northwoods Deer

Gray wolves have established themselves in the Upper Great Lakes states, contributing to the decline of whitetail deer. Research shows that fawns are most vulnerable to predation by wolves and other predators.

“Wolves make an impact, and they probably explain why I seldom get trail-cam photos of the same mature buck two years in a row,” says Mike Kolbeck, a Boundary Waters guide. However, hunting wolves has minimal impact on their population.

In Minnesota, hunters killed only one wolf in the areas that were hunted from 2012 to 2014. Even with an estimated 3,000 wolves in the state, they consume far fewer deer than what hunters harvest annually.

Winter Kill and Whitetails

Deer numbers heavily depend on snow cover during winter. Severe winters lead to high mortality rates as deer struggle with malnutrition and predation. Fawns and mature bucks are particularly vulnerable.

During harsh winters in the 1990s, deer mortality rates were as high as 32 percent. Snow cover and duration play a crucial role in determining the survival of the deer population.

Declining Hunter Numbers

As the deer herd declines, so do hunter numbers. This is especially noticeable in the Northwoods, where hunting pressure has reduced significantly over the past decade.

Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan have all seen a decline in gun-deer license sales. Many hunters have been discouraged by the low number of deer and the lack of successful hunts.

Can Northwoods Deer Rebound?

While factors like snowfall and wolf populations are beyond control, habitat management can still have a significant impact on deer numbers. Providing suitable winter habitat that offers food and cover is crucial for the survival of the herd.

Forests with mature conifer cover and a balanced mix of habitats are important for deer. Dead or dying balsam fir trees provide valuable food sources, and longer aspen rotations are preferred for winter cover.

Wildlife managers are conducting research to better understand deer movement and habitat preferences. This knowledge will help guide forest management practices that benefit whitetail deer in the long run.

The northern edge of the whitetail’s range will always experience boom and bust cycles due to winter conditions. However, the Northwoods will continue to offer a unique hunting experience for those who appreciate the wilderness and its deer hunting traditions.